NBA - Artigos e Análises Estatísticas para discussão

[Carson Wentz]

Pegando na ideia do Nuk, está aberto este tópico, para funcionar em paralelo com o tópico de Discussão Geral. O objectivo disto é colocarem aqui artigos/excertos de artigos que achem que podem ser interessantes, sobre uma equipa, uma situação de jogo, uma análise estatística, um jogador em específico, whatever. Se acharem interessante, mandem vir.

 

Vou tentar manter isto o mais actualizado possível, com ligações para os diferentes artigos que forem sendo colocados.

 

Dezembro 2012:

 

 

• Sixers and Rockets: A Tale of Two Offenses
  
• Breaking down Pau Gasol's return: how he fits into the offense & Defense and transition offense
  
• What The Avid Hawks Fan Sees Compared to what the Casual Nba Viewers See Post Johnson Era
  
• Phoenix Suns Defense: BREAKING BAD
  
• David Lee better than advertised

 

 

 

Janeiro 2013:

 

 

• The most important shot in hoops: a look at how all 30 squads use - or don't use - the corner 3-pointer
  
• John Henson, Larry Sanders, and the quandary of playing time
  
• Draft: Top Ten NBA Draft Picks, What Are They Really Good For? & No Bad Drafts, Just Bad Drafters
  
• Thaddeus Young's Newfound Identity
  
• Where have all the gunners gone?
  
• Nets Keep Gaining With Carlesimo At Helm
  
• NBA PM: The Truth Behind Trade Rumors
  
• Cavalier Film Room: Smash Mouth Kyrie Irving
  
• Phoenix Suns GM wants to win, not honor past
  

 

 

Fevereiro 2013:

 

 

• As Memphis sheds, OKC stands as beacon
  
• The Sports Guy on performance-enhancing drugs
  
• Rubio still lacks offensive efficiency
  
• How every NBA team runs Horns
  
• Phoenix Suns’ signing of P.J. Tucker has turned out to be ‘great find’
  
• How far can the Boston Celtics go?
  
• What it's like to be traded
  

 

 

Março 2013:

 

 

• Lakers' Improvment Helps Bryant's Case
  
• Heat checking egos at the door
  
• Tankadelphia? Aaron Barzilai and Sixers Draft Position
  
• Value added: Late draft picks, cheap veterans the most cost-effective producers in the NBA
  
• Joe Johnson, Kobe Bryant are league's least cost-effective players
  
• How the Griz Can Survive Without Marc Gasol
  
• Kobe Bryant's myths
  
• The evolution of King James
  

 

 

Abril 2013:

 

• Learning from Gregg Popovich
  
• Interview with Tim Grover, Author of Relentless
  
• The Thunder Without Russell Westbrook
  

 

 

Maio 2013:

 

• KG's winning this board game
  

 

 

Junho 2013:

 

• Spur Wars - Round IV: Return of the Finals
  
• Anatomy of a Deal: Kawhi Leonard for George Hill
  
• Stanford student gaining cult status for rethinking NBA philosophy

 

 

Agosto 2013:

 

• Familiar faces among the remaining 2013 free agents
  

 

 

Novembro 2013:

• Suns proving surprisingly adept at team defense
  
• A Sixers asset no one is talking about (Turner para Chicago, Boozer para Philly)
  

[Carson Wentz]

Sixers and Rockets: A Tale of Two Offenses

Rich Hoffman - Liberty Ballers

 

There are many things I admire about the way the Rockets run their offense, things I wish the Sixers would do more. And it's interesting enough that in many cases, the Rockets don't have the optimal players to run their system, yet they see the benefits of playing that style anyway. For example, they more often than not have players stationed in both corner threes at all times. Chandler Parsons and Marcus Morris are usually in those spots, and they aren't all-world shooters by any stretch of the imagination. But Houston is smart enough to realize that even Morris and Parsons can be efficient shooting from that spot, and because of that threat, they space the floor and give their ball-handlers, James Harden and Jeremy Lin, room to operate.

 

For a team with limited playmaking ability like the Sixers, one of the best ways to maximize their talent would be to place two of the team's three-point shooters in the corners. For all of Dorell Wright's struggles shooting the ball this season, he's 17-39 from the corner three. That's a weapon. So is Jason Richardson, who is 13-31 from those spots. Nick Young, who is only 8-30 to start this year (Swag), shot an absurd 50-104 from the corner three last season. Evan Turner has proved plenty capable taking that shot when he's been off the ball. The Sixers do have the necessary shooters to space the floor.

 

Houston also employs the pick and dive big man. Omer Asik is a very flawed offensive player, one who has a lot of trouble catching the ball and making free throws. But he does two things the Sixer bigs in general don't do, two vital elements to his team's offensive success. First, he sets screens, ones where he more times than not makes contact with the defender. In the Sixers' case, their poor screening may be more of a mindset problem. With their big men having the freedom to flare for inefficient long twos, often times they forget that the first purpose of the screen is to make contact with the ball-handler's defender in hopes of giving him an advantage. Because of this, the Sixers waste a large number of screens. Houston doesn't.

 

Asik also dives hard to the rim, as about 87 percent of his shots come in the restricted area. One of my personal pet-peeves in basketball lingo is how many will blindly refer to a jump-shooting big man as someone who "spaces the floor." In the right context, yes, that can be true. But when a team has four other players outside of the paint taking jump shots, a big man that floats around the perimeter actually bunches the offense up compared to someone who plays in the paint. In the Rockets' attack, Asik should be considered just as much of a floor spacer as the three-point shooters.

 

Obviously having a player of Harden's caliber making decisions with the basketball off high screens is a luxury the Sixers don't have. The Beard's ability to pull-up off the dribble or zig-zag to the rim where he's either going to make the shot or get fouled is a national treasure, one Nick Cage would be honored to go and dig up.

 

But just watching Harden's approach in taking that screen and attacking the basket relentlessly is such a stark contrast from the way the Sixers use their ball screens. While Harden or Lin takes a straight-line drive to the rim which places so much pressure on the defense, Evan Turner goes East-West, or sometimes even a little backwards, in hopes of freeing himself for a 16-footer. And if it's not there, a big man is flaring East-West for a 16-footer of his own. It all seems a little fruitless, no? Ironically, Houston's high ball screen attack brings back a few memories of the Ohio State Buckeyes when Turner was at the controls.

 

Não é o artigo completo. Fica aqui a ligação: Sixers and Rockets: A Tale of Two Offenses

 

Não posso falar muito sobre os Rockets porque pouco vi deles, mas posso falar sobre os Sixers. Concordo com ele em quase tudo sobre os Sixers, vocês precisam mesmo de "spread the floor", aquela zona de mid range tá sempre demasiado "cheia" e com bons shooters que vocês têm podem muito bem aproveitá-los melhor, principalmente o Wright que é muito bom para esse tipo de offense e o J-Rich também encaixa bem. Falta-vos é uma presença de garrafão (Bynum), que obrigue a defesa a adaptar-se e a tomar decisões. Sem essa presença é algo fácil deixar um Hawes, Kwame ou Lavoy lançar de mid range ou mesmo no post, desde que não lhes seja dado free layups/dunks com shots de mid range as equipas podem bem, que umas noites vai cair mas maior parte deles não (apesar do Hawesome ter um bom mid range game). Com o Turner a melhorar a sua range e o Jrue a ter mais consistência no seu lançamento os Sixers podem começar a usar um ataque mais rápido e mais aberto. O Thaddeus também pode ser muito melhor aproveitado num sistema desses, lança bem do canto e tem um bom 1st step que lhe permite caso comecem a fazer "batota" na marcação passar pelo defensor e criar vantagem.

 

My 2 cents. Qual é a tua opinião sobre o artigo e o modelo ofensivo dos Sixers ?

 

 

Eu já vi algumas coisas dos Rockets e ontem acabei por confirmar tudo aquilo que já achava. Não acho o Asik tão limitado ofensivamente como isso, mais que não seja porque sabe o que fazer e isso, para mim, é meio caminho andado, mas de resto, 100% de acordo.

 

Quanto aos Sixers... Eu percebo que para o Doug Collins seja difícil, mais ainda agora sem Jrue. Mas há, essencialmente duas coisas que me fazem alguma impressão.

 

1) Limitar os turnovers a todo o custo pode ser contraproducente. Se é verdade que protegemos bem a bola, a verdade é que também corremos tão poucos riscos. Isso nota-se pelos long two's, não há bloqueios bem feitos, não há, na generalidade, penetrações (termos tão poucos FTA's por jogo é uma prova clara disso) e acaba por ter que se lançar esses long two's que são os piores lançamentos que se pode fazer, muitas vezes em cima do shot clock.

 

2) O papel do Thad Young. O homem é um valente. Andou anos entre a 1st e a 2nd unit. Andou entre SF e PF. Na offseason era visto como 6th men vindo banco, agora é, de longe, o melhor jogador da equipa, no sistema da equipa (porque o Jrue seria bom, na minha perspectiva, independentemente do modelo usado). E tem a agravante de não lançar de 3, por causa do Doug Collins vá-se lá saber porquê, quando tem capacidade para isso. E mais, ele é um mismatch terrível enquanto PF para os adversários, o que poderia ser game changer se efectivamente fizéssemos uma boa utilização do Center, o que não ocorre porque, lá está, não há um Asik.

 

 

1) Concordo, precisam de arriscar muito mais, ainda para mais tendo jogadores inteligentes e com bom handling. O Doug tenta proteger demasiado o jogo ofensivo, limitar os TO e lançar mid-range shots o problema é que se por um lado é bom a equipa cometer poucos TO's por outro é mau contentar-se com tantos lançamentos de mid range. Dando o exemplo dos Knicks, que acho que era um modelo ofensivo que encaixava bem na vossa equipa, eles são a equipa que comete menos TO's (se manterem o ritmo batem o record da liga) e mesmo assim são agressivos e sobretudo conseguem criar espaço para os 3 pontos (devem ser das melhores da liga neste capitulo, não sei ao certo mas penso que não deve andar muito longe). Claro que ter um jogador como o Melo ajuda muito para atrair atenção da defesa. Acho que um dos maiores problemas da vossa equipa é mesmo falta de liberdade, tudo demasiado "robótico" não existem muitas jogadas imprevisíveis e tornasse algo fácil de anular.

 

2) Eu adoro ou Thaddeus acho que tem muito talento e vem sendo mal aproveitado á alguns anos. Concordo que ele podia ser muito mais bem aproveitado como PF criando mismatch ofensivamente, pegando novamente nos Knicks, fazendo o mesmo que o Melo faz quando joga a 4. O Center é mesmo um problema grande para colocar esses sistema a funcionar, se por um lado os Knicks e os Rockets têm o TC e o Asik respectivamente, muito fortes no screen, os Sixers não têm ninguém capaz de fazer isso. Screens demasiado softs, não obriga o base contrário a pensar se deve ir "á volta" ou "vai por cima" não obriga o poste a trocar de marcação pode muito bem fazer double team no portador da bola pois sabe que o Center não é grande perigo. O Jrue ao inicio andava a cometer muitos TO's muito por culpa disso, ele sempre que saia de um screen levava com double team, e tentava fazer passes praticamente sem olhar (culpa dele aqui) para o meio originando muitos TO's.

 

Eu acho que o vosso sistema tem coisas boas e não é preciso mudar por completo a filosofia, no entanto como tu falaste um pouco mais de risco não caia mal na equipa, tendo em conta os seus intervenientes.

 

btw tava a pensar criar um tópico para Artigos, onde colocássemos lá artigos e possam ser debatidos sem conversas paralelas pelo meio. Penso que seria benéfico para o debate e ficaríamos mais informados sobre temas que não damos muita atenção e dava aso ao debate que é sempre benéfico para esta secção e que o Skip tanto quer ver :mrgreen: .

Editado 21 Dezembro 2012 por Mesquita

[Nuk]

Fizeste bem em abrir. Tava á espera de mais respostas mas assim já fica feito, na pior das hipóteses é um diálogo a 2 :mrgreen:/>

 

Deixo aqui o primeiro artigo (em duas partes), sobre o Pau Gasol e o retorno aos Lakers vs Cats. Vou apenas deixar os links que são artigos grandes e com imagens.

 

http://www.silverscreenandroll.com/2012/12/20/3787294/pau-gasol-fits-into-lakers-offense - Parte ofensiva.

http://www.silverscreenandroll.com/2012/12/21/3790538/breaking-down-pau-gasol-return-defense-and-transition-offense - Parte defensiva e transição para o ataque.

 

Logo á noite posto a minha opinião sobre o assunto.

Editado 21 Dezembro 2012 por Nuk

[Pat Riley]

Não acho que se justificasse criar um tópico só para isto o outro já tem tão pouco tráfego dava para isto ficar lá.

[Carson Wentz]

Fizeste bem em abrir. Tava á espera de mais respostas mas assim já fica feito, na pior das hipóteses é um diálogo a 2 :mrgreen:/>

 

Deixo aqui o primeiro artigo (em duas partes), sobre o Pau Gasol e o retorno aos Lakers vs Cats. Vou apenas deixar os links que são artigos grandes e com imagens.

 

http://www.silverscreenandroll.com/2012/12/20/3787294/pau-gasol-fits-into-lakers-offense - Parte ofensiva.

http://www.silverscreenandroll.com/2012/12/21/3790538/breaking-down-pau-gasol-return-defense-and-transition-offense - Parte defensiva e transição para o ataque.

 

Logo á noite posto a minha opinião sobre o assunto.

 

Não vi o jogo, não posso falar muito, mas o Pau está longe de ser o problema dos Lakers.

 

Primeiro, defensivamente, o Pau é um bom jogador, mas a defesa vem mais da organização colectiva do que da individual. Ainda assim, ele falha na jogada em que deixa o Mullens aberto para o triplo (cenas destas vão acontecer, não há jogos perfeitos). Ofensivamente, BLOQUEIOS! (o que eu dava para ter alguém que não um peso morto a fazê-los em condições...)

 

A chave dos Lakers, para mim, está mais no Nash do que no Gasol, por vários motivos. Primeiro porque com bloqueios bem feitos e gente nos cantos, ter Nash é muito diferente do que ter Duhon. Depois porque ainda preciso de ver um jogo com o Nash a 100% (ou seja, com 4/5/6 jogos nas pernas) e a relação que tem com o Kobe no ball handling. Porque a ideia é ter o Nash a [/i]run the point[/i], pick and roll com o D12 e Kobe nos cantos a tirar partido dos double teams. É um terror para as equipas terem um monstro na área pintada, um lançador como o Kobe e um base como o Nash para defender, o problema é que isto poderá acontecer em menos jogadas do que seria desejado.

 

Defensivamente, ter Nash também é diferente, porque ele está longe de ser um grande defensor. Mas, se os Lakers fizerem bem as coisas no ataque, com o poder que têm, podem dar-se ao luxo de ser medianos na defesa.

 

Resumindo e concluindo, percebo quem quer trocar o Pau porque, nuns Lakers a 100% é, para mim, a quarta figura ofensivamente. Mas o que os Lakers deviam mesmo fazer era ir ao Arizona, meter a equipa médica de Phoenix num autocarro e pedir um resgate de 50 milhões enquanto os torturam para descobrir o segredo do elixir da juventude! :mrgreen:

Editado 21 Dezembro 2012 por Mesquita

[LgD]

Agora na NBA as equipas procuram 2 tipos de lançamento. O de 3 pontos e o perto do cesto por isso é isso que Philly tem de fazer. Têm lançadores de 3, mas falta aquela presença perto do garrafão já que o Hawes é soft.

O nuk falou dos Knicks e falou bem, as defesas têm que se preocupar com os 3 three point shooters que têm em campo e isso permite o Felton e o Chandler trabalharem no pick and roll, que leva o Chandler a ter aquela % de FG ridícula e que faz com que 6,0 dos 6,7 lançamentos dele sejam no paint

 

 

No que toca aos Lakers o Pau não é o que o D'antoni quer, o seu skillset não é o que o Antoni pretende e eles estavam melhores com um Anderson ou Bargnani a 4, pelo menos para este esquema. Com este roster os Lakers têm de jogar devagar. Não têm atletas para andar a correr de um lado para o outro. Deviam pôr a bola dentro no Gasol e no Howard e colocar o Nash a jogar pick and roll tnato com o Howard como o Gasol. E o Kobe é o Kobe

Editado 21 Dezembro 2012 por LgD

[Carson Wentz]

Agora na NBA as equipas procuram 2 tipos de lançamento. O de 3 pontos e o perto do cesto por isso é isso que Philly tem de fazer. Têm lançadores de 3, mas falta aquela presença perto do garrafão já que o Hawes é soft.

O nuk falou dos Knicks e falou bem, as defesas têm que se preocupar com os 3 three point shooters que têm em campo e isso permite o Felton e o Chandler trabalharem no pick and roll, que leva o Chandler a ter aquela % de FG ridícula e que faz com que 6,0 dos 6,7 lançamentos dele sejam no paint

 

Diz isso aos palermas que tem orgasmos com os 18 footers. Eu era mini e já sabia que eram os raios dos lançamentos a evitar.

 

O problema maior nem é presença no garrafão, o problema é não saber fazer bloqueios, não saber quando os fazer e não saber onde os fazer. E claro, falta gente de qualidade para isso.

[Nuk]

Eu acho que o Gasol encaixa em qualquer sistema, é um jogador fabuloso com uma grande court vision. No entanto acho que ele tá a mais nos Lakers, eles precisam de mais roles players, é preciso banco naquela equipa e o Gasol é a única moeda de troca que têm para dar e conseguir isso em retorno. O problema ofensivamente para o Gasol é mesmo esse, é ele ser a 4ª peça ofensiva da equipa e um jogador como ele precisa de mais touchs e precisa de ter bola no post coisa que com este sistema pouco irá acontecer.

 

Colocando-me no lugar de GM dos Lakers e tendo em conta que o D'Antoni ficará lá até ao fim da época eu trocaria o Gasol por um 4 que saiba lançar (Bargs, Anderson, Ersan) e mais um ou 2 role players. Puxando a brasa á minha sardinha acho que a troca mais fácil para os Lakers seria mesmo connosco, o Ersan encaixava no sistema perfeitamente e temos imensos role players que podiam ser muito úteis aos Lakers. Mas também seria algo risky para os Lakers visto o Ersan ser fraco mentalmente e LA não é Milwaukee.

 

Acho que o problema dos Lakers está longe de ser o Pau, acho que o principalmente problema é mesmo o banco que é nulo. No entanto é impossivel para eles nesta altura ter as 2 coisas, portanto terão de abdicar de uma. Resta saber se vão continuar sem produção do banco ou se irão trocar o Gasol e trazer mais depth para a equipa.

 

No entanto sou da opinião que os Lakers precisam de dar tempo á equipa e ao sistema, principalmente quando o Nash voltar, e ver como correm as coisas com a equipa toda healthy. Se bem que uma equipa como os Lakers neste momento e estando fora da zona dos PO não pode andar á espera que as coisas resultem, eles precisam de ganhar já, se não a vida começa a ficar negra para eles.

[Skip Bayless]

Melhor tópico do forum!

 

Não o estraguem sff

[Carson Wentz]

Já é relativamente antigo, mas até é giro porque dá para ver o que se confirma e o que acabou por não se confirmar.

 

É o post de um fã e não dos escritores do blog, aqui está a ligação no Peachtree Hoops.

 

What The Avid Hawks Fan Sees Compared to what the Casual Nba Viewers See Post Johnson Era

por manny.iggy

 

"J-J-J Joe Johnson"..... That phrase is what everyone heard after the perrenial allstar, Joe Johnson, made a spectacular shot, especially a buzzer beater. Will that phrase be missed, yea, but for the avid Hawks fans, it isn't as big of a blow as the casual NBA viewer may see it. Us fans know of the power of Joe but we also know that his power had its limits especially in the playoffs (every year smh). His lackluster performances in the playoffs made us, the avid fans, believe that he isn't as good as his contract made him out to be. However, during the regular season, Joe would have spectacular games putting up a shooting clinic and occasionally, bail us out in clutch situations time and time again. The casual NBA viewer would see Joe as our only hope for playoff contention but us real fans know that those regular season Joe performances will mean nothing come playoff time.

 

Furthermore, us real fans know that there is no way that the play of Josh Smith, Jeff Teague, and Al Horford will go down after the absence of Cool Joe. Josh last year showed the league why he is the true face of our franchise tieing the team in PPG and in the top 2 in all other significant stats. Teague also came into his own showing that he has the talent to be the future PG of the Hawks. Casual fans look at Jeff's stats and would think "Huh, he's just a so-so point guard. Not much showing for him." Real fans, who watch every Hawks games, see Jeff''s explosive nature and his ability to be a floor general. So with the departure of Iso Joe, Jeff will get a lot more time to shine. Al Horford should be as consistent as ever after his season ending shoulder injury. His stable mid-range game should be back to form during next season. These players should make tremendous strides this season in order to keep Hawks relevant and hopefully, more than that.

 

Now let's take a look at the new players who will most likely impact us a couple of ways Post iso Joe Era. Out everyone that came out of the trade of Johnson, only Anthony Morrow stood out to me. For the casual NBA fans who are not familiar with Morrow, he is a LIGHTS OUT shooter. He can fill it up from the three point line and is considered one of the top 10 3 point shooters in the league. Us avid Hawks fans saw him four times every year every year he played for New Jersey and we know of his sniper skills. Another shooter that would help us is Kyle Korver. The casual NBA viewer would know him as the "Ashton Kutcher looking guy" who runs a lot and can fire from deep. He too is considered one of the top 10 three point shooters in the league for good reason. His quick release is deadly to opponents who are left by him when he comes off screens and plus, his screen running is an excellent diversion for the offense as putting too much focus on him as the defense creates openings for his teammates. Korver's defense is pedestrian at best but what he brings to the table positively far outweighs his faults. Another player from the Joe Johnson trade that may be of use is Deshawn Stevenson. I think every type of fan knew him as the guy who locked down Lebron, yes Lebron James, in the 2011 NBA Finals. Stevenson's corner 3's and gritty defense will help especially if we need him to guard The King again. I would like to say that rookie, John Jenkins may be impactful but we know how LD (Larry Drew for you casuals) likes to treat rookies *hint hint Jeff Teague's first couple of years.

 

Yes, us Hawks fans are expecting something from those guys but the new guys I'm going to discuss now are the players who should make a deep impact for us. Let's start with former Hawk killer Devin Harris. For the casual NBA viewer, I call him the former Hawk killer because us avid fans know of what he did to us as a New Jersey Net. His super explosive speed and quickness will put the best of players in foul trouble (also because of his acting skills). Harris's 3 point game has gone down after his departure from New Jersey but he is still a marksman from 3. Him and Teague as the starting backcourt (I'm assuming) should be the fastest backcourt in the league behind Milwaukee's backcourt of Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis. Question to the casual NBA viewer, what does Sweet Lou mean to you? If you know what I'm talking about then you know of the offensive prowess of Louis Williams. Williams is one of the best sixth men in the league last year. He can fill it up from short, mid, and long range just as good as the next guy, He also loved to get to the free throw line which is an added bonus to my book. His PPG last year led Philly in scoring (while coming of the bench). The same will be needed from him this season. Some may think that he will play like a Jamal Crawford for us showing only offense no defense but let me tell you that he is a tight nit defender despite his size.

 

With the players we already had combined with the players we received should sufficient in replacing JJ's impact and should even surpass his impact. The casuals might think that stars are everything in determining playoff contention but if you look at history, depth is also beneficial for example the Nuggets post Carmelo trade and basically, the 2004 Pistons. The avid fans know that we don't have too much to worry about since the guys he have now should do a decent job (did I mention to forget that we resigned Ivan the Terrible). This year for the Hawks should show us avid fans and the rest of the league that WE WILL NOT MISS J-J-J JOE JOHNSON.

 

My 2 cents. O JJ é um jogador acima da média mas... É um shooter. E os Hawks fizeram um excelente trabalho em substitui-lo. Têm opções em qualidade e quantidade. Resumindo, estão melhores, se chega para darem o passo seguinte? Duvido muito.

 

Concordo em parte com a importância relativa do Joe Johnson. Não é mais importante que o J-Smoove, não é mais importante que o Al Horford. Quanto ao Jeff Teague, dou de barato.

 

Agora, o problema é que não vejo como os Hawks vão segurar o Josh Smith (e nem sei sequer se é a melhor ideia...), mas também duvido muito que consigam aliciar o D12 como muitos dos adeptos acreditam mesmo. Acho que ele está para ficar em LA, a menos que algo muuuuuuito estranho aconteça (tipo os Lakers não irem à post-season e mesmo assim, não acho que seja certo).

[Perdigas]

O Josh Smith é overrated até dizer chega.

[andriy pereplyotkin]

Phoenix Suns Defense: BREAKING BAD

 

Watching every single defensive possession during the Phoenix Suns recent seven game skid has put suicidal murderous thoughts into my head. I am not sure about waterboarding as an effective or ethical method to extract sensitive information, yet I am absolutely positive that forcing our enemies to watch the Suns during this stretch would yield massive amounts of espionage gold!

 

Over the past few weeks, I have been logging torturous late night hours reviewing every single defensive possession in order to develop a deeper statistical method to measure our defensive aptitude [or lack thereof]. It is a monumental task that is taking so long that I have decided to move forward with my conclusions without tabulating all of the results, mostly because the conclusions that have surfaced are palpable and to spend additional time when the obvious must be stated would be both tiresome and criminal [and my wife is getting mad at at me].

 

The Suns Suck!

 

Ok, that is a complete oversimplification, but I had to get it off my chest.

 

As someone who has coached over 500 games in my career [and over 1500 practices], I have seen many possessions of basketball with many players of differing ability and IQ. It has become second nature for me to quickly assess and understand the root of any particular problem that occurs during any given possession, as it is my responsibility to quickly correct whatever is going wrong. I know firsthand that you can cover strategy in your practice until you are blue in the face, only to have the players go out and do something completely contrary to what you are teaching. It happens. Yet there are times when enough possessions are performed in a specific way to conclude that the players are being coached to play that way. There are even times when there is absolutely no consistency in how those situations play out, which might indicate a complete lack of coaching [see Mike D’Antoni].

 

In the Suns case, there are some maddening trends that make it all too clear that Alvin Gentry and his staff lack a clear and concise defensive strategy.

 

While offense and defense flow together and are deeply intertwined, for this exercise I focused on the end of the floor that I believe should be consistent and keep you competitive in every game regardless of whether shots are falling. For years we have been spoiled with an overabundance of offensive firepower, yet our defense has always been suspect and pointed to as the stumbling block to any sort of real success [championship].

 

Yes, great offense is fun. However winning championships is more fun than that. The bottom line is that we want the Suns to compete in every game and every possession. I would be fine with losing a game because our offense wasn't there, if we were competitive on the other end of the floor. In fact, during this skid, there were times when that was the case [Memphis]. Unfortunately there are too many where it isn't.

 

To the tape!

 

Here is an interesting fact. On quick glance, opponents have run a Pick-and-Roll [PNR] to instigate offense on about 50% of their possessions. The other main offense used is what I would call dribble penetration/iso plays, accounting for 20% of all possessions. The remaining offense intiators are post play [10%], curls/picks or other sets [7%], and plays off transition [8%], and other [7% - such as offensive rebounds or broken plays].

 

This means that the bulk of defending requires the Suns to deal with pick and roll possessions and dribble penetration off of isolation play [guarding your man]. Yet isolation plays are the result of both quality one-on-one moves [like Rudy Gay, Dion Waiters or Rodney Stuckey put on us] and plays as a result of scrambling and forcing shots up. So the real offensive mainstay any team needs to deal with is the pick and roll. A team that can stop the PNR half the time is going to automatically drop an opposing teams scoring opportunity by 25% [don't hold me to that, but it is my educated estimate that if you stop half of the possessions that make up half of the possessions, it equals 25%].

 

What is completely obvious by watching the Suns guard pick and roll plays is that they far too often get beat [or another way of more accurately stating it – far too few times do they get stops]. What is less obvious are the culprits for this ineptitude.

 

Many have pondered that our guards/wings have played inferior perimeter defense, allowing opposing guards/wings to light them up. After watching every PNR possession, that conclusion would be flat out wrong.

 

The main culprits for the defensive breakdowns are our bigs [more specifically the man guarding the picker] and to a lesser extent, the other players responsible for rotating [more on that later].

 

The typical play has the opposing big setting a screen on Dragic [or someone else], finding our big [Gortat usually] stepping sideways [or back] in a "sag" position readying himself to attempt to guard the ball handler as that player gets a head of steam and attacks [or conversely pulls up for an unmolested jumper].

 

One can hardly blame Dragic for being steamrolled by a pick. In fact, on many possessions, our guard attempts to break through the picks and stay with the play. Yet time and again, the opponent is getting deep into the lane and either getting to the rim or collapsing our defense in lieu of a wide open perimeter shot, thus giving up a league leading amount of threes.

 

Obviously some will point to the "pick your poison" argument, stating that everyone in the league has this issue and you have to decide which way you want to play things.

 

Yet the issue with the Suns is that there doesn't seem to be any specific plan for how to handle the PNR, and even worse, within any given possession when they decide to play any certain way, there is a complete lack of communication between the players directly involved in the PNR and the other "rotation" guys [meaning if they sag, nobody should be helping, and conversely if they trap, everybody should be helping]. In addition, there are far too many possessions where they simply are making a half-hearted effort.

 

Evidence of this fact are the possessions where the Suns actually perform PNR defense to a pleasurable result. Usually the player involved with guarding the PNR with aplomb is Luis Scola. While at times, all of our other bigs have hedged nicely, Scola is the most consistent "hedger", often trapping the ball hard to measurably positive results.

 

One thing is for sure – when we trap hard, or even hedge hard [where it forces the ball handler to change direction or impedes his ability to get a head of steam], our defensive possession results in a "stop" more than 80% of the time. When we sag off the PNR, the numbers reverse. WOW! REMEMBER THAT!

 

There are two things that stand out to me. The first is the coaching staff clearly does not properly communicate a consistent and concise strategy to guard the PNR. It is entirely possible that they do not have a strategy. Yet they are paying a guy on staff to be the "defensive" coach only to have players playing this play incorrectly.

 

The second is that our players are lazy. The latter speaks for itself [giving up on plays, staring down the strong side while someone comes weakside to outposition us, half-hearted attempts to break through picks or close out on players, and not hustling for loose balls].

 

The former is much more complicated. Look, there are always situations that dictate you switch up how you play based on who you are playing. If an opposing point guard is a terrible outside shooter, you may tell your player to go under every screen and tell your big to either "hug" their man on the pick [closing the space between them so the guard can go around], or to sag allowing enough space for your guard to break through the pick. If someone is a great shooter, you do it differently. You can pick your poison and decide to let teams shoot over you, settling for the odds that shooting decreases as the game wears on. There are many different strategies and none are entirely right or wrong.

 

Hedging hard or even trapping the PNR can have its negatives; players are forced to make more effort thus tiring out, and there is the real possibility of getting your big in foul trouble. You also have the problem when you face a masterful point guard who can either split the hedge or sees the open floor well enough to find quick outlets putting your other defenders in scramble rotations. All of this is valid arguments against playing this way versus some teams [although I would argue that list of teams is limited].

 

Yet what is clear from the data is that the benefits of hard hedging/trapping outweigh the negatives. Looking at per possession numbers for pick and roll plays [during this losing streak], the Suns have hedged hard approximately 22% of PNR possessions, sagging the remaining 78% [remember that 50% of the defensive possessions are PNR plays].

 

Of the plays where they have chosen to sag, the Suns have stopped on only 13% of those possessions [meaning the play resulted in no score for the opposing team].

 

Conversely, on PNR plays where they have hedged or trapped hard, the Suns have stopped their opponent on 80% of those possessions. While those numbers might skew slightly as the number of possessions of hedging increase, it is a staggering statistic. The data clearly shows that hedging hard [and occasionally trapping] increases your odds of stopping your opponent dramatically.

 

Why is this?

 

First, hedging hard forces the ball handler to take extra dribbles in the "wrong direction", slowing his progress to the rim [or deterring it completely]. This allows the other defenders time to locate and rotate to the correct areas for help, as well as drains time off the shot clock. Many times it requires the ball handler to reset the pick, taking even more time, which creates broken plays and hurried shots at the end of the clock.

 

Hedging also forces the ball handler to make a longer pass, usually a skip pass, as the rotation defenders should be cutting off the closer immediate pass to the roll man. This type of pass usually takes enough time to allow the other defenders to rotate and properly close out on the play. It also gets the ball out of the prime decision maker’s hands and into the hands of guys you generally don’t want making plays [unless that guy is a LeBron, Durant or a Kobe]. Again, time comes off the shot clock and the play tends to break down at that point, forcing a player to iso create against the set defense [a low probability of success].

 

Forcing teams to dribble and pass around the exterior of the floor significantly increases the probability that your defense will get a stop.

 

Play after play watching Gortat sag off the PNR like a hockey goalie waiting for a blocked shot is excruciating. Is it because Gortat is lazy? Is it because he doesn’t want to exert the effort? Is it him wanting to pad his block stats? Or is it a result of not knowing what to do and when? What is the case for the other Suns bigs?

 

I believe it is a combination of factors. While Luis Scola tends to hedge hard on every play, I believe that is a result of playing for another coach [Rick Adelman] who grilled it into his head and it has now become habit.

 

For the rest of the players, their habits are not being dealt with, nor are they being told what to do in a consistent fashion. In fact, I would contend that the coaching staff is simply not sure what to tell them.

 

The latest grumblings from the Suns seems to lean toward disbelief in the poor performance and some belief that there are no answers.

 

Bull.

 

The answers are pretty clear:

 

1] While we suffer from not having a go-to scorer, and everyone on the planet seems to want to commiserate over that fact, it isn't our biggest issue. Our biggest issue is that we cannot compete consistently because we cannot defend consistently. Yes, having a good offense helps [and I am not completely discounting offensive prowess as something that would be helpful], but we need a better defense more than we need a better offense at this point.

 

Playing defensive minded [and able] players does a few of things: [1] it increases the intensity of play, which by itself increases our ability to compete; and [2] it allows us to consistently be in games when our offense is not clicking; and [3] it gives us the opportunity to win close games in the end by getting us crucial stops.

 

It is time to sit Brown, Beasley, Morris and Gortat [or at least limit their play until they buy-in].

While some of you might vociferously question inclusion of Gortat, and even Morris, my observation of over 700 defensive possessions has provided me clarity. The two worst defenders on this team are not Beasley or Brown. It is easily Markieff Morris followed by Gortat.

 

Stat wise, Morris has a team worst defensive rating of 114.9, Gortat is fourth worst at 109.4, [beasley 113.9, Brown 111.9]. Yet it is in results of possessions not recorded by any particular stat where it is clear that these two are failing.

 

Yes Gortat blocks a lot of shots, yet many of those come on baseline drives or putbacks off offensive rebounds. Few of those blocks are a result of great defensive position and hustle.

 

I will admit early on he was blocking many drives, but he was the main cause of allowing those players to get all the way to the rim in the first place, by sagging on PNR plays and allowing opposing guards to gain a head of steam and require Gortat to recover by blocking shots. Essentially he is making up for his mistake, but he doesn't do it enough to make up for all of the mistakes he makes.

 

Gortat’s main failure is his complete inability to consistently hedge on PNR plays, and recover fast enough to stay in solid defensive position. For him, I see it as a lack of consistent effort and aggressive play. On the positive, I do think that Gortat, with a clear directive, can change his strategy to be more effective and get off this list. Yet his lack of energy at times is simply deplorable for someone who called everyone out in the media. . At this point, bench him in favor of O’Neal [who by the way has a team best defensive rating of 92.5] until he starts buying in.

 

In regards to Morris, although we all like his promise, he is a horrid defender. Too many possessions have him playing incredibly soft, standing and watching the ball only to have guys cut behind or in front of him for a play. He too does not make the effort necessary for consistent play on the defensive end. I watched it first hand and was shocked how many times I would get pissed at Morris for his lack of effort. It was at least equal to the amount of times for Brown.

 

As for Brown and Beasley, both are putrid defenders. Brown will occasionally exert glimpses of defense, only to ruin them with overplaying lanes and getting out of position, or simply ball watching and allowing guys to set up for wide open shots [wow, just like his offense]. The problem with Brown is that he will linger in the middle of the court, half-heartedly playing "help" defense when no help is needed, only to leave his man for wide open threes. Despite his occasional ability to score, I would prefer to have Dudley or Tucker on the floor, or even move Dragic to the 2.

 

Beasley is simply lost. He plays about every 12th play on defense. I am not sure anything can be done for him.

 

It is time to sit them and go with guys that are going to make effort!

 

2] Hedge and trap every pick and roll. Send the opposite big to cut the "roll" man off, and cut off all short passes. You will get split sometimes and sometimes you will have fouls issues, but the data is clear. This is a clear strategy. Of course if you need to tweak it in game, do so then. But as a course of action, have an actual strategy and implement it with the correct players.

 

3] Get the ball out of everyone else’s hands and let Dragic command the offense. I know this is not defense related, but it is the case. Gentry is losing Dragic. Goran’s frustration is evident and it stems from the fact that he is tasked with saving this team from itself, yet the effort is not rewarded. If you don’t give him the keys, he will eventually quit on us, and I think you are starting to see his defensive intensity fall.

 

4] Despite #3 above, we need to use post play as an offense initiator more, and stop with the high post entries. The fact is, we have shooters on this team. We also have two guys that do have post skills that draw double teams. Right now in the NBA, teams haven’t focused on guarding this [thus why post plays make up only 10% of possessions]. Drawing doubles gets Brown, Dudley, Morris, Scola and Dragic open looks. Mix this into our repertoire more often and ditch the 1-4 high offense. It isn't working unless you are going to duck the opposing big into the block and pass down low from the high post entry. Just dribble to a side and post up Scola and O'Neal on occasion, would you?

 

5] I don’t get involved with the hiring and firing of coaches, but light a fire under someone there to start demanding more. Our effort is lax.

 

I will continue to log my defensive entries and develop more stats as I get more time. I apologize for not being able to provide those numbers, but I wanted to get this out in a timely fashion.

Um artigo gigantesco de um gajo do Bright Side of the Sun, o blog da SB Nation dos Suns. Isto foi escrito no final da losing streak que tivemos. Desde então, melhorámos defensivamente. E o curioso é que temos estado a fazer precisamente o que ele sugere.

[LgD]

Ewing theory baby! Tiveram que trocar aquele contrato e fizeram muito bem

[Carson Wentz]

O Josh Smith é overrated até dizer chega.

 

Não vejo onde seja overrated. É do melhor de entre os que não são franchise players, Iguodala style.

[andriy pereplyotkin]

O Iggy também é overrated, já agora :mrgreen:

E eu gosto muito dos dois. Mas não podes confiar uma equipa a nenhum deles, são material para championship teams mas enquanto role players. O Iggy é óptimo para teres na tua equipa a defender os Lebrons da vida, tal como o Josh. Nenhum é grande lançador, embora o Iggy tenha muito mais qualidades por ser um bom passador e não ser um headcase.

Gostaria de ter qualquer um se tivesse um ou dois grandes jogadores para liderar a equipa. Mas não gostaria de ter nenhum deles como melhor jogador da equipa, isso é um passo certo para a 8th seed e uma saída na 1ª ronda.

[Carson Wentz]

Eu acho que ninguém no seu perfeito juízo diz que eles são franchise players para um contender.

 

Logo, não acho que sejam overrated. São segundos melhores jogadores num contender, easy.

[SAS_Robben]

Iggy, Smith e Rudy Gay é tudo farinha do mesmo molde.

Excelentes jogadores que servem para 2ª ou 3ª peça de uma boa equipa e 6th de um contender tipo Lakers.

[Carson Wentz]

Eu sei disso, mas bolas, são top 10 da NBA, top 15, talvez, que raio! Mas também não tens 20 franchise players na Liga... KD, LeBron, D12, CP3, Carmelo, Rondo, Love, Rose (se vier em condições), Bynum (trololo) maybe Deron e Irving e mais quem? (excluí Timmy, Kobe, Dirk e Garnett por motivos óbvios).

 

LaMarcus, Iggy, J-Smith, etc etc vêm por aí a seguir.

Editado 23 Dezembro 2012 por Mesquita

[SAS_Robben]

Após este tempo todo continuo sem ver o Rondo como franchise player.

[Carson Wentz]

Sim, é discutível. Eu incluo-o aí, por muito que não goste, os números não são tudo mas são alguma coisa.

[LgD]

Westbrook e Wade também são franchise players apesar do Wade ultimamente andar bem mal

[Carson Wentz]

O Wade já foi, já.

 

Quanto ao Westbrook, o Skip que venha cá. :mrgreen:

 

Aliás, acho que o único que eventualmente me esqueci (e ainda tem que provar muuuuuuuita coisa) é o Harden.

Editado 23 Dezembro 2012 por Mesquita

[SAS_Robben]

Westbrick trololol

A SG era bem capaz de ser.

[Victarion]

eu acho é que há jogadores que podem produzir muito sem serem franchise players. O Rondo é um exemplo. O Josh Smith podia ser outro, mas esse tende a não tem consistência.

outro exemplo é o Noah. Pode produzir, mas não é franchise player. O Arenas, na altura do seu auge, produzia muito, mas não era de todo franchise player.

[SAS_Robben]

eu acho é que há jogadores que podem produzir muito sem serem franchise players. O Rondo é um exemplo. O Josh Smith podia ser outro, mas esse tende a não tem consistência.

outro exemplo é o Noah. Pode produzir, mas não é franchise player. O Arenas, na altura do seu auge, produzia muito, mas não era de todo franchise player.

 

Completamente de acordo.

Existe uma porrada de jogadores nesta NBA que são excelentes mas que não chegam a franchise players. Memphis está cheia deles.