NBA - Artigos e Análises Estatísticas para discussão

[Carmelo Anthony]

Os Knicks dependem imenso de dois wildcards, o Shumpert e o combo Amar'e/jogo interior. O Shump porque entre Wade e Lebron, alguém tem que ser abrandado. O Amar'e/jogo interior porque é aí que se ganha um jogo contra os Heat. Se o Amar'e estiver bem e eles jogarem para dentro, então têm hipóteses.

 

Exacto. A forma de travar Miami é no jogo interior e aí os Knicks têm clara vantagem, se souberem mexer as suas peças. Quanto ao factor Shump muito francamente não me parece que podemos contar com ele a 100%. O jogador está notoriamente mais lento e nada liberto de movimentos, portanto não creio que veremos uma defesa tão acérrima dele em cima dos seus oponentes. Ainda assim, meio Shump sempre é melhor que nada e ajudará a equipa.

 

Depois ainda falta uma coisa extremamente importante...

 

Acho sinceramente que falta algo aos Knicks. O quê, não sei. :mrgreen:

 

Mentalidade. É aqui que as minhas dúvidas quanto à capacidade dos Knicks nestes PO's aumentam. A atitude e o empenho da equipa são paupérrimos. Defesa tá quieto (e olha que já mostraram laivos de que são capazes de defender bastante bem em determinados momentos), concentração é para amanhã e depois aquela do "deixa andar" sinceramente dão cabo de mim. Ainda há pouco vi uma estatística interessante: os Knicks são a melhor equipa em toda a NBA no 4º período.

 

Os Knicks já não são o que eram no início da época. Os 3 não caem todos e o "6th Man of the Year" está lentamente a voltar ao que sempre foi. Espero que os Bulls apanhem os Knicks nos play-off para largar um sweep! Pacers e Bulls são os mais fortes candidatos a destronar Miami no este.

 

Ok...

Editado 11 Fevereiro 2013 por Da Gawd

[Rafinha]

Eu acho que o maior problema dos Knicks é claramente a defesa, principalmente o pick n' roll e o switching.

E do que tenho visto a offense também não é grande coisa, há muita isolation no Melo.

[Bynum Lover]

É o mal das equipas terem grandes jogadores, parece q tudo gira à volta deles, mesmo que instintivamente. Porque a NBA está cheia de grandes jogadores e basta ver que quando há lesões, há sempre um ou outro jogador que aparece e faz grandes números. Não é por acaso, nem é por falta de empenho quando a estrela está em campo, é mesmo porque mentalmente parece q descansas à volta da estrela, que ela é que tem de resolver e os outros jogadores não dão aquele effort especial, não por não quererem, mas porque é instintivo.

[Pat Riley]

É o mal das equipas terem grandes jogadores, parece q tudo gira à volta deles, mesmo que instintivamente. Porque a NBA está cheia de grandes jogadores e basta ver que quando há lesões, há sempre um ou outro jogador que aparece e faz grandes números. Não é por acaso, nem é por falta de empenho quando a estrela está em campo, é mesmo porque mentalmente parece q descansas à volta da estrela, que ela é que tem de resolver e os outros jogadores não dão aquele effort especial, não por não quererem, mas porque é instintivo.

 

Por acaso isso é bem verdade, excepto um ou outro caso parece que as equipas aguentam-se muito bem sem as suas estrelas, e algumas até que ficam melhores.

 

Um belo exemplo disso foram os Wolves no inicio da temporada. Não fizeram nada de astronomico, mas sem Love e Rubio (e penso que ainda havia mais), fizeram um óptimo trabalho. Mas o maior exemplo é sem dúvida os Bulls sem o Rose. Continuam uma equipa temivel para todas as outras da NBA.

 

Sinceramente eu sei reconhecer que o Melo é um dos melhores da NBA e um excelente jogador. Mas jogadores como ele e o Kobe não me fascinam. A quantidade de tempo que passam com a bola na mão e a quantidade de lançamentos "maus" que fazem por jogo são prejudiciais às equipas. Digam o que disserem.

[Bynum Lover]

É verdade, mas há que fazer a distinção entre o que resulta e o que não resulta. O Kobe teve uma carreira excepcional e tem 5 anéis, o Melo é 'só' um grande scorer. Também se não fosse assim, se passassem sempre a bola, se não assumissem aqueles tough shots que entram e nos deixa, a nós fãs, todos malucos, eles não eram quem eram, quantos unbelievable shots têm o Kobe, Melo, Durant, Lebron, Wade, etc? É preciso esse toque de ego e 'hoggice', para atingirem tamanha notoriedade, claro que o Kobe exagera demais, porque é o feitio dele, mas a capacidade que ele, o Lebron, Durant têm de fazer coisas incríveis e lançarem muito mais que os outros e fazerem da sua equipa uma candidata clara ao título e que anda sempre nas Finals, é o que os distingue de um Melo que em todas as equipas é sempre um massive scorer e não chega a umas Finals. Mas compreendo o que dizes ;)

[LgD]

Acho que o supporting cast teve algo a ver com isso mas pelo menos o Kobe durante a sua carreira foi muito melhor defensor (ou aplicou-se mais) que o Melo

[andriy pereplyotkin]

What it's like to be traded

 

 

It was a surprisingly clear, sunny day that day in Seoul. Even though it couldn’t have been warmer than 15 degrees outside, the sunshine made my already good mood much better. See, it also happened to be a day off for me. While these other blokes were in the gym running lines and doing whatever, my coach told me I could kick it at the crib. I had definitely earned it, I figured, having played nearly the entire game in our last contest, then appearing at multiple locations to greet fans that Friday, dunking in the dunk contest that Saturday, and then capping it off with 30-plus minutes in the KBL All-Star Game on Sunday. Monday was mine.

 

I didn’t get out of bed until about noon. When I did, I went to the mall and grabbed some lunch and some props for a photo shoot I decided to handle that day. I came back to my apartment and spent two hours on the photo shoot for my clothing company. Taking photos of a beautiful model was awesome and improved my mood even more. She left at about 5 pm and I snacked on some leftovers, got tired again and figured I’d lay it down for a nap. The day couldn’t be any better.

 

At about 5:30 my translator called me and asked me to come to the gym. Coach always wanted to check up on me on my days off. It was annoying, but a small tax on an otherwise great day. I headed out and began the two-minute walk to our practice facility. On the way, my phone buzzed. I had a Facebook message from a random Korean:

 

“BAN-SON YOU ARE MOBIS GOODBYE.”

 

WTF? I dismissed the weird message, much like I disregard most of the fan messages I get that don’t make sense. I got to the gym and my translator, Chris, caught me from the corner of his eye and rushed over.

 

“So, you know you’ve been traded, right?”

 

He could barely get the words out.

 

I kind of felt dizzy, but I played it cool in case he was messing with me.

 

“What are you talking about?”

 

“Oh God, they didn’t tell you either? Come in here coach wants to talk to you,” he said with a defeated sigh.

 

Within 45 seconds of entering the gym, I was now seated in front of the head coach of the LG Sakers, as he was explaining that I had indeed been traded to the Hyundai Mobis Phoebus that day. That he hoped I was happy to be going to a winning program. That he wanted me to… blah blah blah… He wished blah blah blah…

 

His words were drowned out by my own thoughts. How did I not know? Did anybody know? Is this why I had the day off? They never really liked me, did they? When am I supposed to report to MOBIS? Wow, that random Korean kid was actually the first one to tell me? How is this going to—

 

“So good luck. Come say goodbye to the rest of the team,” Chris translated, breaking my stream of thought.

 

He walked me to the film room where all the guys were waiting for me, some looking like they were about to cry. They each gave me hugs and said a few words. The coach then asked me if I had anything to say. I told him the truth, that I haven’t even had time to think, let alone form a goodbye speech.

 

Out of nowhere the MOBIS translator appeared and told me to grab some things from my apartment and come with him. I was to have practice at 7 at the MOBIS facility – another WTF moment, indeed.

 

At 5:30 I was awoken from my nap, at 6:30 I was in a van with a bag consisting of my hoop kicks a change of clothes and my laptop on the way to my new team, and by 7 I was indeed taped up and ready for practice. I was introduced to the new team and we got it on. Just like that. I guess there was no time to waste.

 

After practice, I was informed there was a change of plans. We drove back to my old apartment, 35 minutes away, and moved all my stuff out right then. There’s nothing like moving out at a moments notice when you absolutely had no idea you were supposed to be moving that day. It was miserable.

 

At midnight I was back at the MOBIS facility, where I’d have to spend the night in the dorms and was told to be up at 7:50 am for team breakfast. Welcome to the new team, Benson.

 

I bring this up because the NBA trade deadline is looming and, for some people who have no idea what’s coming, this is coming. Granted it’s a little extreme hearing about a trade and practicing 45 minutes later, but it’s coming for someone and chances are they aren’t going to like it.

 

It’s going to be those guys who are thrown into a trade to make the numbers work. It’s going to be a “franchise” guy who is going to realize that he’s not as “franchise” as he thought. It’s going to be guys with families and children and schools and lifestyles and friends and a comfort zone and it will hit them all at once that they really have absolutely no say in the grand scheme of things.

 

They’ll realize that all those times they joked with the GM, or had a heart-to-heart with the head coach, or appeared for the fans, or even the moment that they framed their first jersey from maybe the only team they have yet to play for will be second guessed.

 

In my situation, I realize that there are basically three stages to handling a trade. I already told you the first stage: The Moment.

 

The moment you hear that you’ve been traded, there are many, many emotions. I could go on for days about how many NBA guys I’ve been told sat in their locker and cried after hearing they were traded. I can understand that, for sure. I certainly didn’t shed a tear, mainly because I hadn’t been there long. Also, I did get traded from one of the worst teams to a team considered to make a run at the championship.

 

Still, as my coach was speaking it felt like a breakup. He was giving me the “it’s not you, it’s me” talk and I was thinking about how it’s ridiculous that they break up with me, I should be breaking up with them! I stayed and dealt with that relationship and they break up with me? In this case, my “ex” chose my next “girlfriend”, who was also hotter, but still… How dare they?! I could only imagine if I had been on that team for years and had built my whole life around that team. It definitely could have been worse.

 

The second stage is dealing with the expectations. As far as Korean basketball goes, there’s not much more pressure you could put on someone as what the media is currently placing on me. The team I joined is already good. In fact, all the preseason publications predicted that they would win the title. So, here they are sitting in second place, and they trade away a first-round pick and one of their American players to get me over here six weeks before the end of the season.

 

In a pre-game interview before my first game with the new team, a writer asked me if my coming to MOBIS would be like Dwight Howard going to the Lakers. Basically, he asked if I would be a boon or bust. Another writer said that all the media is calling me the final piece to the puzzle, and wanted to know if I agree. I find that living up to myself is one of the toughest things to do these days.

 

I could only imagine what it would be like to be a big ticket NBA player who changes teams midseason. One team clearly feels that they were better off without that player, while another thinks that they just may be the piece that the team needs. Is it safe to say that the pressure of going to L.A. actually was too much for Dwight? I’m not calling it either way, but for people to crown the Lakers kings of the West just because they have a new player puts a lot of pressure on said player.

 

What if it’s a lower-level guy? This guy may have felt that he had a good chance to finally break into the rotation, then he’s traded to a new team and the pressure to prove himself resurfaces all over again. If they don’t show something special, they may find themselves in Italy the next season instead of New York.

 

The last stage, and much more difficult for me than the average NBA player is integrating with the new team. I had been traded before when I was in the D-League. At the time, I requested the trade, it was not a surprise, and I went to a team where I already knew half the guys, I didn’t take anyone’s spot, really, and they all spoke English (obviously). This time around was completely different.

 

There’s obviously a language barrier here, so building a relationship with the Koreans takes time. I would say that the most bonding happens during training camp when we all complain about how hard practice is, travel to another country to compete in games that don’t count, and go out on our off days. By the time I was traded from LG, our wins and losses didn’t matter. We knew each other well without being able to communicate and we were always smiling.

 

That first practice with MOBIS was eerily silent. It was like I walked into the wrong open gym, played a game, and walked back into the wild, never to be seen again. Except I was seen again the next morning, and the next day, and so on. Part of it for me was that I felt like I used my emotional capital on the old team, and to be traded away so quickly made me feel like that effort wasn’t worth it again, at least not in the short term. But like everything, time is changing that and we’re building relationships that will be important once the playoffs start.

 

The weirdest part of this whole deal is the fact that in the Korean league, even though there are two Americans on every team, only one American can be on the court at a time. So let’s say I’m in the game, the other American has to basically play cheerleader. This has never really been an issue during my years in this league. Even this season when I was on LG, my teammate Ira Clark who is a damn good player would have some games where he’d play 30 of the 40 minutes and I’d play ten. Other games our roles would change. We were both cool with it, especially since we had built a rapport during training camp, and respected each other’s abilities.

 

So I’m traded to the new team, a team that already has a great record, and the guy they traded away (Curtis Withers) was the backup. That means that the guy here, Ricardo Ratliffe (also a very good player in this league) who has been leading the team all year – and doing damn well at it – has to deal with me coming in. And not only do I come in, I come in with all this media fair and hoopla that I didn’t ask for, I start after three days of being here, and the coach just trusts me with his minutes right off the bat. I don’t care what kind of person you are, that would be tough to deal with.

 

So here I am, almost feeling guilty about the trade, because this has really been his team, and every minute I’m out there he has to sit and watch, which he hasn’t done all year. He’s been a good sport, and actually had three of the most monsterous games I’ve seen out here (15-16 FG a few days ago) during this time, but still. It’s not easy for anyone to deal with. I’ve been splitting time all season and he hasn’t. It’s as simple as someone else pissing on your yard, and you have to let him stay there. I’m sure NBA players have felt this before because there is only one ball, and sometimes players are brought in that can take your shine. But I don’t know of many situations where one person’s success will directly affect the other person.

 

So now what? I’ve been traded. My lifestyle is completely different than it was three weeks ago, but at the end of the day, the game is the game. We’re tough guys. We get over the B.S. and move on. Buckets will be gotten. Games will be had. Friendships will be formed, and new memories will be created. For me and my team, hopefully it ends in a championship, but that will all depend on how quickly we can build a bond that usually takes a season of ups and downs to create. Until all the dust settles, it will be a process.

[kronix]

Muito bom texto

[Taka]

Lakers' Improvment Helps Bryant's Case

 

March 8 -- Whenever Kobe Bryant's Hall of Fame career ends, there will be a glaring smudge on his long list of accomplishments.

 

Bryant has just one MVP trophy on a resume that includes five championship rings, two Finals MVPs, four All-Star Game MVPs, 14 All-NBA selections (10 first team nods), 12 All-Defensive team selections (nine of those first team) and a host of other career superlatives.

 

That lone MVP trophy (from 2008) will stick out for a number of reasons. He has a teammate, Steve Nash, who can boast of having won more MVP hardware than he has.

 

Was Bryant penalized for being a brilliant player who happened to play on a dominant Lakers team early in his career, when he was viewed as the second fiddle to Shaquille O'Neal? Or was he simply caught in a political process that didn't favor a player whose relationship with voters has always been tenuous at best?

 

"I don't have a good answer for why, but I know it's a disgrace," said one Eastern Conference executive who has maintained his stance that Bryant was the best player in the league for a stretch, before and after he won his lone MVP, without being honored properly.

 

"I'm not saying he's the best right now. I think LeBron [James] has distinguished himself from the rest of the pack now and he has the championship to go with it. But for Kobe to have just one ... it makes no sense."

 

Bryant's dramatic rise this week on the Kia Race to the MVP Ladder is directly related to how he has performed recently. Sure, the Lakers are still slogging through their own mess in an effort to join the Western Conference playoff mix. But there is no denying the individual brilliance Bryant has displayed in his efforts to lift the Lakers out of their abyss.

 

His critics will point out that the Lakers still haven't had a breakthrough win against any of the league's truly elite teams. And that's true. What shouldn't be overlooked, however, is the fact that his one-man wrecking crew routine has been in full effect in losses to the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder just as it has in wins against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Atlanta Hawks and New Orleans Hornets.

 

In that comeback win over the Hornets, Bryant became the second-oldest player in NBA history (Larry Bird remains the oldest ... for now) to record a 40-point, 10-assist game. And he did this the night after he dropped 30 points in a tough loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Bryant's work in that win over the Hornets (42 points, 12 assists and seven rebounds) in particular seems to have energized his teammate in ways that could pay off in a major way down the stretch.

 

"This game brought us closer together as a team," teammate Dwight Howard said. "This is what it takes when you're playing for the playoffs and then when you're in the playoffs, fighting through games like this and it just shows our character. We had a tough one last night, we started out on a bad note tonight, but instead of giving up, we kept fighting until the end."

 

Bryant has vowed to lead these Lakers to the playoffs and promised that they'll make some noise when they get there. If it happens, given what we've seen of these Lakers from the start of training camp, few players could make a stronger case for MVP honors.

 

The Next Five: Deron Williams, Brooklyn Nets; Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls; Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors; Zach Randolph, Memphis Grizzlies; Monta Ellis, Milwaukee Bucks

 

Falling out: Tony Parker (due to injury), San Antonio Spurs

 

Não sabia se devia pôr aqui.

 

É algo estranho, mas também explicável.

[Dinai]

Heat checking egos at the door

 

MIAMI -- In the midst of an 18-game winning streak, much of the focus has been on the piles of statistics the Heat and their stars have tallied over the past six weeks. It has made it easy to overlook perhaps their greatest achievement: their willingness to be unselfish.

 

You read that correctly. The July dancing, pregame dunking, Harlem Shaking Heat might like to show off from time to time but they’re also playing a downright chivalrous brand of basketball.

 

Coach Erik Spoelstra, often overlooked because of the talent on his roster, created a bit of a daring game plan for this season that went against conventional wisdom and long-standing star-treatment traditions. He somehow has been able to sell it.

 

“He won’t win it -- because no one wants him to win it -- but Erik Spoelstra is the coach of the year, without a doubt,” a league executive said Sunday. “No one admits it, the way he’s gotten all these guys to check their egos and play this way is rare in this league.”

 

Let’s be real. LeBron James does not like defending bigger players. Dwyane Wade longs to shoot more. Chris Bosh dislikes playing center. Ray Allen gets frustrated he isn’t more a part of the offense. Shane Battier is getting bullied and beat up every night, forced to guard opponents he never thought he would. Mario Chalmers thinks he’s one of the best point guards in the league. Udonis Haslem thinks he should be getting playing time as though it’s still 2006.

 

Spoelstra doesn’t just get them all to play nice, he gets them all to play at a dominating level.

 

“Their interchangeability is ridiculous,” said a league scout who recently has been tracking the Heat. “Ray Allen is a classic [shooting guard]. Other than that, everybody they have they can move around and take different roles. Chris Andersen, who they just signed off the street, can play center in small lineups and power forward in big lineups. Even Wade, they have him guarding a 6-11 guy [Paul George] and then playing point guard on offense at times.”

 

James is on the hottest streak of his career and he took only 10 shots and scored a season-low 13 points Sunday in one of the biggest games of the regular season against the Indiana Pacers. Wade has never shot the ball better, but hasn’t shot less since he was a rookie. Bosh is an eight-time All-Star and if he gets his number called five times a game on offense he’s lucky. Battier is having the best 3-point shooting season of his career and didn’t even attempt one against the Pacers. Allen has gotten 10 shots in a game only five times during the Heat’s winning streak.

 

The ego management going on with the Heat team is simply remarkable.

 

It wasn’t a merry-go-round to get here. There were cracks earlier this season. It was especially evident one night in Salt Lake City in mid-January. Wade was benched for the whole fourth quarter and seething. Bosh also was benched for being eviscerated by the Jazz’s big men. James was so sore from banging with Al Jefferson and Derrick Favors that he very publicly took a postgame ice bath and tweeted out the photos of it.

 

The Heat were regularly getting pounded on the boards and regularly getting beat on the road, where their small-ball system sure looked like a flawed strategy. It looked like the demands of this style were wearing on the stars.

 

The Heat added Andersen in a midseason move and that helped, but otherwise Spoelstra has stayed the course. It’s paying off.

 

“When you put together a veteran team like this you have to have the right guys,” Spoelstra said. “If you don’t and guys are unhappy with the roles then your versatility and your depth doesn’t mean anything. For us to make other teams uncomfortable we have to be uncomfortable first. There’s always an easier way than to play to our identity.”

 

Only Spoelstra knows how often he has had to deliver that message behind the scenes when players have grown testy. Every coach at every level has players who think they should be getting more or doing more or playing more. In the Heat’s case, those players probably are right, most of them have the talent and experience to do more. But Spoelstra has been able to sell them on the collective and it has made for one fearsome juggernaut.

 

The streak, whenever it ends, has been one of the dominating stories of the season thus far. But the reality is the Heat have shown, as long as they remain healthy, the product of this ego-checking is going to be a terror for an opponent to beat in a seven-game series in the spring.

 

“We’ve got a great team. No individual will ever be able to win a game for us. We have to do it as a collective group,” James said. “We can play any game. We can play big, we can play small, we can play fast, we can play slow. Whatever presents itself, we’ve shown it. We just go execute the game plan Spo gives us.”

 

Qual a vossa opinião em relação a isto? Eu pessoalmente este ano dava mais uma vez ao Pop, mas mesmo não sendo o maior fã do estilo de treinar do Spo, concordo com o que é dito no artigo.

[Rafinha]

Eu dava ao Thibs. O que ele está a conseguir fazer com aquele plantel é fantástico.

[Pat Riley]

Qual a vossa opinião em relação a isto? Eu pessoalmente este ano dava mais uma vez ao Pop, mas mesmo não sendo o maior fã do estilo de treinar do Spo, concordo com o que é dito no artigo.

 

Pop.

[Carson Wentz]

Quer-me parecer que a melhoria dos Heat teve mais a ver com o orgulho dos jogadores em si do que com a influência do Spo (não que não deva ter tido um papel nessa mudança, mas não me parece que isso tenha sido o principal catalisador).

[Pat Riley]

Sinceramente, esta fase boa que Miami está a passar tenho acompanhado pouco a não ser as boxscores. A mim o que me faz escolher o Pop é a capacidade dos Spurs de vencerem jogos com Duncan lesionado, ou com Parker ou com Manu ou com 2 deles, and so on. A capacidade como a equipa está montada, e a maneira como os jogadores se conseguem adaptar às adversidades. Algo que com Miami não existe. Se se lesiona o LeBron ou o Wade ou o Bosh a equipa passa mal e não é pouco. E enquanto o Spo não me provar que consegue fazer isso há de ser sempre um treinador de m*rda que só ganha o que ganha pelos recursos que tem disponiveis.

 

Por último e como o Rafa disse o Thib ainda vem antes do Spo. Imo.

[Bynum Lover]

Eu dava ao Pop também, aquela equipa dos Spurs é um mimo, se não ganharmos nós(lol), espero bem que ganhem os spurs.

[andriy pereplyotkin]

Apesar da quebra considerava o Jackson.

[El Colosso]

Eles nunca tinham dado o CoY 2 vezes ao mesmo treinador, não me parece que agora o façam logo 2 anos seguidos. Cheira-me que vai para o Vogel, se bem que eu dava ao Thibs

[Perdigas]

Mark Jackson ou George Karl.

[Carson Wentz]

Este texto é focado nos Sixers (baseia-se num estudo do Aaron Barzilai que agora trabalha como director analítico dos Sixers) mas serve um pouco para várias equipas que estão na nossa posição relativamente ao draft:

 

Tankadelphia? Aaron Barzilai and Sixers Draft Position

jtjennings - Liberty Ballers

 

What does Aaron Barzilai have to tell us about tanking, draft position, and player values?

 

As the Tank train known as Tankadelphia is now full-steam ahead, I was curious as to the difference in the value of the various draft picks.Yes, we know it is better to have the #1 vs the #31 pick, but historically/statistically is there much difference between say the #6 pick and the #12 pick? I started to do some googling, figuring someone had done this research before and I could save myself some time. And, in fact someone had done the research, and it turns out he is none other than the Sixers’ director of analytics Aaron Barzilai. This makes this article interesting for two reasons. 1 – It is an interesting use of data connecting draft order, player value, and guaranteed salary. 2 – It is written by a guy who, hopefully, is being used as an adviser for the Sixers draft process and therefore could give us insight into what they are/will be thinking. I’m going to highlight two particular graphs he uses in the article to make 2 points about the draft.

 

Point #1 – In the range where the Sixers are most likely to draft, getting the highest value player appears to be more about luck than draft order.

 

 

In this graph Barzilai takes the value of each draft position over several drafts (the points on the graph) and then fits the ‘best fit’ line connecting these points in order to establish a pattern (the curved line). As you can see, and as you’d expect, players drafted earlier have higher average value than those drafted later. The relationship is essentially an exponential one, meaning as the we go up the draft order the value doesn’t just increase at the same rate (that would be a linear or straight line relationship), but the increases in value between picks get larger and larger as we go up to the number 1 pick. Although this relationship Barzilai describes is accurate for the entire draft, if you dissect the draft into a few sections or tiers you can see that this relationship between draft order and value isn’t quite as clear.

 

I’ve marked up Barzilai’s graph with 3 cut lines and have also circled the area where the Sixers are most likely to draft. Above the first cut line we see the top 5 picks, and it is pretty clear there is more value in those picks than any of the rest of the picks (and probably more than most of the 2nd round added together). Strangely, the number 2 pick has been worth a lot less than the 3 and 4 pick. I say it’s strange because the data doesn’t cover the Evan Turner pick. I’ve circled the next tier because it is the remainder of the lottery and where the Sixers are most likely to pick. Cut #2 is what I roughly estimate the relationship between draft order and value for the circled segment of the draft. This is a flat line, which is means there is essentially equal value between pick 6 and pick 14. This is drastically different than the relationship between pick 1 and pick 60. What this means is that, at least from this data, it looks like whether you pick 6th or 14th your likelihood of getting someone of value is essentially the same.After cut 3, it looks like the talent becomes significantly lower and getting someone of value becomes a lot less likely.

 

Of course, this data is limited and making any hard and fast claims can be dangerous, but if you take this seriously it would mean it doesn’t matter if the Sixers tank as long as the get into the lottery (unless than can get into the top 5). This is particularly true considering who the Sixers have drafted in recent years; they aren’t the Spurs or Thunder, so we can’t exactly expect them to outperform the average NBA team in talent evaluation.

 

Point #2 – The three draft picks where the Sixers are most likely to draft 9-11, are pretty close to being the sweet spot between draft pick value and guaranteed salary.

 

 

Barzilai’s graph shows the estimated value ‘best fit’ line referenced above, but also adds a second line which is the guaranteed salary for each pick. You can see towards the top of the draft and towards in the end of the first round those two lines basically merge, but in between there is a ‘deal’ to be had. This gap, where the player’s guaranteed salary is lower than their value, is the largest around pick 9. Now, obviously I think we’d all want the Sixers to spend a little extra cash to move higher up on the value scale, but from a value/dollar perspective the 9th pick isn’t a bad place to be. Given the information discussed in point #1, drafting a little later, say around 13 or 14, may give you the chance to get the most bang for your buck.

 

What is the take away from all this? Well, for me it might just be that I should feel OK allowing myself to root for the Sixers to actually win some games down the stretch. As someone who thinks the draft is generally how you end up making your team better, lately I have been torn between wanting the Sixers to play well and getting a high draft pick. This evidence suggests that unless the Sixers can tank all the way to the top 5, and as long as they don't untank themselves into the 8th seed of the playoffs, it might not matter how many games they win in the last couple months of the season. Go Sixers!

 

O artigo parece-me interessante, também não acho que seja assim tão diferente pickar em 6 ou em 12º mas tem quanto a mim, uma falha grande: não aborda a estratégia de pickar por necessidade vs. best player avaliable.

[Carson Wentz]

Value added: Late draft picks, cheap veterans the most cost-effective producers in the NBA

Tom Ziller - SB Nation

 

Where do you find the best values in the NBA? Unsurprisingly, it's in the draft and on the free agent scrap heap.

 

 

Grantland's Bill Simmons has long done an annual look at the best and worst contracts in the NBA -- this season's list of the bad was topped by Joe Johnson and Amar'e Stoudemire. Simmons has also widely and loudly sung the praises of Chandler Parsons, the Rockets small forward who produces consistently on a dirt-cheap contract. Parsons came out of the second round of the 2011 NBA Draft. (Remember that, because he's not the only cost-effective producer out of that class.)

 

I wanted to do a straight math look at the most cost-effective producers in the league. Basketball-Reference's superb data made this possible. Using their salary information and 2012-13 production data (pulled a week ago, so about three to four games out of date), I took a look at who were the best values in the league.

 

I needed a way to measure production, though. I ended up using a simplified version of John Hollinger's PER (Game Score, really), which isn't perfect but was tenable and explainable. Basically: you add up the good things players do that show up in a box score with appropriate values placed, you subtract the bad things and you have your number.

 

And yep: Chandler Parsons is the most cost-effective player in the NBA.

 

Through March 10, Parsons had cost $1,165 per unit of production. The average cost of a unit of production this season is $13,938. Based on that price, Parsons' production this season has been worth $10.6 million. He's making $888,000. So he's currently worth roughly $10 million more than he's being paid. That's huge. That's like a free All-Star, almost.

 

No. 2 on the list is another player who was taken in the second round of the 2011 NBA Draft: the Kings' Isaiah Thomas. As of March 10, Isaiah had cost just $1,350 per unit of production. His production is worth $7.8 million; he's making $762,000. He basically pays for himself and Marcus Thornton's salary. (Somewhere, a Maloof's ears perk up.)

 

Here's the rest of the top 10 in dollars per unit of production:

 

• 
   
  
• 3 - Greivis Vasquez, Hornets, $1,619/unit, worth $10.2 million, being paid $1.2 million
  
• 4 - Brian Roberts, Hornets, $1,821/unit, worth $3.6 million, being paid $473,000
  
• 5 - Kenneth Faried, Nuggets, $1,829/unit, worth $9.9 million, being paid $1.3 million
  
• 6 - Lance Stephenson, Pacers, $2,089/unit, worth $5.8 million, being paid $870,000
  
• 7 - Pablo Prigioni, Knicks, $2,183/unit, worth $2.5 million, being paid $473,000
  
• 8 - Nate Robinson, Bulls, $2,187/unit, worth $6.1 million, being paid $1.1 million
  
• 9 - Jeff Taylor, Bobcats, $2,218/unit, worth $2.6 million, being paid $575,000
  
• 10 - Patrick Beverley, Rockets, $2,229/unit, worth $1.7 million, being paid $281,000
  

 

The next two names on the list: Andray Blatche and Matt Barnes, who are each being paid a bit more than $1 million and have produced nearly $6 million worth. Are you sensing a theme?

 

Parsons, Thomas, Stephenson and Taylor are all recent second-round draft picks. (Stephenson came out in 2010, Parsons and Thomas in 2011 and Taylor in 2012.) Vasquez and Faried are recent late first-round picks. Roberts, Prigioni, Robinson and Beverley (as well as Blatche and Barnes) were veteran free agents this past offseason.

 

Among this group, you won't find any max players, lottery picks or big name free agents. But of course, you're not winning championships with these guys as your best players. Having these players allows you to have salary cap space to spend on the more expensive players whose production you also need. If you can get starter-level production out of your $800,000 second-round pick or your $1.1 million bargain bin free agent, you can spend big money on players who can produce but come with a much higher price.

 

There's another way to look at this, too -- by how much in real dollars players outproduce their contracts. After all, while Parsons and Brian Roberts are comparable in terms of cost per unit of production, one of them (the Rocket) is producing a ton while the other is just really, really, really cheap and also somewhat productive.

 

So here are the 10 most underpaid players in 2012-13 based on the measures we're using:

 

• 
   
  
• 1 - James Harden, Rockets, worth $17 million, being paid $5.8 million, $11.7 million surplus
  
• 2 - Stephen Curry, Warriors, worth $13.9 million, being paid $3.9 million, $9.9 million surplus
  
• 3 - Chandler Parsons, Rockets, worth $10.6 million, being paid $888,000, $9.7 million surplus
  
• 4 - Ty Lawson, Nuggets, worth $12 million, being paid $2.5 million, $9.4 million surplus
  
• 5 - Kemba Walker, Bobcats, worth $11.7 million, being paid $2.4 million, $9.3 million surplus
  
• 6 - Greivis Vasquez, Hornets, worth $10.2 million, being paid $1.2 million, $9 million surplus
  
• 7 - Paul George, Pacers, worth $11.3 million, being paid $2.5 million, $8.7 million surplus
  
• 8 - Jrue Holiday, Sixers, worth $11.3 million, being paid $2.6 million, $8.7 million surplus
  
• 9 - Kenneth Faried, Nuggets, worth $9.9 million, being paid $1.3 million, $8.6 million surplus
  
• 10 - Brandon Jennings, Bucks, worth $11.6 million, being paid $3.1 million, $8.4 million surplus
   
  

 

A few of those names are pretty damned interesting. Harden's production indicates he'll be more than worth his max contract, which kicks in next season. (Keep in mind that these players have another month of production to add in.) Curry's extension, which also kicks in next season, will pay him an average annual salary of $11 million. If he plays like he is this season, he'll earn every dime. Lawson and Holiday are in similar boats. When you consider that all four of the aforementioned players are still quite young and would be expected to improve, those extensions look wonderful.

 

Walker has had a pretty strong season, and looks like a keeper for the Bobcats. The No. 9 pick in 2011 has two more seasons on his rookie deal. Parsons, Vasquez and Faried have been productive enough to make this list, and Paul George is a star on a rookie deal that was outside the lucrative top five.

 

But the craziest name here is Jennings, who will be a restricted free agent in July. He's been talking about a max deal. We all laugh. (Well, most of us laugh.) Yet this little study says he's worth the same as Paul George, Jrue Holiday and Ty Lawson ... at pretty darned close to max salary. If Jennings' production stays the same through season's end, he'll have been worth roughly $14.5 million in production this season. A max contract pays $15 million in Year 1. That's pretty damn close.

 

And to answer the question you're all asking: the production measure used here does penalize for turnovers and missed field goals. Jennings still rates highly. Defense is what is under-represented in the measure, though blocks, steals and defensive rebounds are all included.

 

Despite the importance of the draft, Damian Lillard (No. 11) is the only rookie in the top 50 in surplus value. But every player in the top 21 is on his first contract. (Then there's a string of veterans: O.J. Mayo, J.J. Hickson, J.R. Smith, Robinson, Blatche and Barnes.) Kevin Durant and LeBron James are the only two players worth more than $20 million through March 10; a couple others could join them by the end of the season. We'll take another look at this leading into free agency, especially with regards to Jennings. And soon we'll look at the worst contracts. (Obvious point: Derrick Rose and Andrew Bynum look quite bad right now.)

 

In the meantime, hug your local second-round pick, bargain bin free agent or, apparently, class of 2009 point guard.

 

Muito interessante, principalmente a segunda parte do artigo.

[Pat Riley]

Não tenho tempo para ler tudo agora mas dei uma vista na diagonal e Chandler Parsons worth 10.6 million? : \

Editado 20 Março 2013 por Snoop Dogg

[Carson Wentz]

Não tenho tempo para ler tudo agora mas dei uma vista na diagonal e Chandler Parsons worth 10.6 million? : \

 

Basicamente eles pegaram numa estatística (não é o PER, mas é parecido) e no salário médio e chegaram à conclusão de quanto vale cada unidade. A partir daí, calculam a diferença entre o que o jogador recebe e o que vale (a produção dele tendo em conta o valor médio).

 

E não me espanta:

 

15.3 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.7 APG com um True Shooting de 58.5% para um gajo que recebe menos de 900k.

 

Em termos de PER (que repito, não é a medida usada) é melhor que jogadores como o Iguodala, Lin, Rudy Gay, Joe Johnson ou Gerald Wallace.

[Bynum Lover]

É bastante interessante, embora obviamente que a qualidade de um jogador não se vê pelas stats, há vários factores que condicionam ou não a performance de um jogador.

[Carson Wentz]

Claro que sim. Mas acho que este parágrafo resume muito bem a coisa:

 

"Among this group, you won't find any max players, lottery picks or big name free agents. But of course, you're not winning championships with these guys as your best players. Having these players allows you to have salary cap space to spend on the more expensive players whose production you also need. If you can get starter-level production out of your $800,000 second-round pick or your $1.1 million bargain bin free agent, you can spend big money on players who can produce but come with a much higher price."

[Bynum Lover]

Sim, sim, daí ter dito que era interessante.