Will anyone break the Premier League’s top-four monopoly any time soon?

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Will anyone break the Premier League’s top-four monopoly any time soon?

 

Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United have all but sown up the top-four places this season and their financial muscle and squad strength mean they will be hard to dislodge.

John Terry leads from front for Chelsea

 

Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United fill the Premier League's top four places – and they may be hard to shift.

 

José Mourinho was talking earlier in the week about the notion of dynastic success in English football. With his Chelsea team having all but secured the Premier League title, it was one of those issues that felt legitimate to raise. Could the west London club go on to dominate for the next couple of seasons?

 

Mourinho stonewalled. No chance, was the Chelsea manager’s short answer. The longer one took in several fundamental points, chief among them the fact that unlike, say, Germany, Switzerland or Scotland, Mourinho said, there was no lone domestic powerhouse in England, rather a handful of dangerous contenders, each intent on slitting the throat of their rivals.

 

“It is even more difficult to dominate than before,” Mourinho said. “How can you speak about domination when everyone knows what will happen in the summer? Give to Arsenal four top-class players and they will again be the Invincibles. Manchester United have a phenomenal squad, including the most expensive player in Premier League history, who is not playing [Ángel Di María].

 

“They are a club where financial fair play doesn’t make a big difference and they will invest hugely again in the summer. Manchester City have done phenomenally, winning two titles in three years and people say that they will also invest hugely [in the summer].”

 

The Premier League’s top four, as it is at the moment and as it will surely finish on 24 May, is a heady blend of star-studded squads, remorseless ambition and financial muscle. And, as Mourinho suggests, it seems fair to predict that it will only get stronger. Which begs the related and far-reaching question: has a monopoly formed at the very top of the English game and are Chelsea, Arsenal and the Manchester clubs embedded in the Champions League places for what they hope will be the long haul?

 

Liverpool’s defeat at Hull City on Tuesday night left them seven points off fourth-placed United in fifth, with an inferior goal difference and only four matches to play. It was the prompt for plenty of soul-searching (as any defeat for a big club is nowadays) and a part of the introspection took in the certainty that it will be awfully difficult for Liverpool to fight back into the top four – not only this season but the next one, as well.

 

Fourth is glory; fifth is nowhere. It is a truism of the Premier League era. But fifth is actually worse than that when the dubious prize of Europa League qualification is factored in. Tottenham Hotspur, sixth and also on course for the Europa League, do not want it and so, in effect, any race for fifth has come to feel like a back-pedal for seventh. It should be said that Southampton, who lie seventh, do want Europa League qualification, although whether they will be saying that next season remains to be seen.

 

When Mourinho discussed the top end of the table, he name-checked Liverpool, too, describing them as having been “fighting for the title for many years”. That felt like an exaggeration but it reflected how great an impression their challenge from last season had made on him.

 

Everything went beautifully for Liverpool last time out – apart from the 2-0 home loss to Chelsea towards the very end – with Luis Suárez and Daniel Sturridge enjoying the seasons of their lives; Raheem Sterling emerging to eye-catching effect and Steven Gerrard clicking in his deeper midfield role, largely because of the movement ahead of him.

 

The club benefited from their absence from Europe and, arguably, from Chelsea and United being in transition. Most Liverpool fans would have signed for a fourth-placed finish in the summer of last year but they overachieved on a grand scale, coming in second and narrowly missing the title.

 

This season has been more erratic and trying, even if it is worth remembering that, not so long ago, they looked odds-on for a top-four finish – most likely at United’s expense. Before they faced their old foes at Anfield on 22 March, Liverpool sat fifth, two points off United in fourth, and they were the form team of 2015.

 

United had lacked cohesion – although they had just beaten Tottenham in impressive fashion – but they stormed to victory that day to ignite the managerial tenure of Louis van Gaal. Liverpool, by contrast, have since gone into reverse, their form reverting to that of the 23 November nadir of the defeat at Crystal Palace.

 

The reason for the focus on Liverpool is that they feel like the most realistic challengers to the current top four. Tottenham have lived a season of transition under Mauricio Pochettino and he says that next time out will be when they have to challenge for the Champions League places. The club plan to back him in the transfer market with a largesse that has not been evident over his first two windows at White Hart Lane.

 

As an aside, no team other than Chelsea, Arsenal, the Manchester clubs, Liverpool and Tottenham have finished in the top four of the Premier League since 2005.

 

The problem for Liverpool – and Tottenham, and the rest – is that the current top four have the greatest financial means and they are pushing to expand further. According to the most recently published reports at Companies House, United have the highest annual turnover and wage bill followed, in order, by City, Chelsea and Arsenal. Liverpool are fifth, Tottenham sixth. “We are where we are [fifth in the league] and it’s probably right,” Brendan Rodgers, the Liverpool manager, said recently. He might be on to something.

 

Moreover, City will expand their capacity at the Etihad Stadium by around 10,000 to a little over 55,000 for next season and Chelsea are exploring their own expansion plans, which may involve knocking down the hotels at Stamford Bridge. United and Arsenal already have the biggest club stadiums in the country. Liverpool are making inroads in terms of ground development but Tottenham do not envisage being in their rebuilt 56,000-capacity stadium before 2018-19.

 

Pochettino has talked of the need for Tottenham to be smarter and quicker than their rivals when it comes to the summer transfer market and Rodgers says that he wants a few marquee signings, rather than a clutch of players with potential.

 

Rodgers’ priority is a top-class striker who can stay fit for the season and, after that, a midfield playmaker and, possibly, a goalkeeper. Mourinho has powered Chelsea to the title after adding a top-class striker (Diego Costa), a midfield playmaker (Cesc Fàbregas) and a goalkeeper (Thibaut Courtois). What is clear is that Liverpool’s recruitment will have to be better than it was last summer – and that was when they had the money from Suárez’s £75m sale to Barcelona and Champions League football to offer.

 

The optimistic Liverpool fans think back to the mood before the United game in March and how tight the margins can be. If the club can add proven quality and keep Sturridge fit – two big ifs – the future would be bright. But the glass is half-empty for Liverpool at present. Was the positive run that preceded the United defeat the exception rather than the rule? The top-four clubs mean business. The chasers must summon something extremely special.

 

The Guardian